50-State Strategy: Illinois

Power-Building Strategy: Draw a 14–3 Democratic congressional map as part of the redistricting process.

Democrats in Illinois currently hold 13 congressional seats to the GOP’s five. Illinois is likely to lose a congressional seat during reapportionment, and when that happens, the new maps for the next decade could likely sustain a 14–3 map.

The Democratically-controlled legislature is responsible for drawing congressional and state legislative districts. We firmly believe that they should press their advantage in this blue state.

While we broadly support fair districts — and support the passage of HR 1 that would do so for every congressional district — this is not the year for unilateral disarmament against the GOP gerrymandering machine.

As we discuss in the House section of our 2040 Report, Democrats are facing two negative headwinds in 2022. First, history holds that 2022 should be a bad year for Democrats; we predict that a 35-seat loss in the US House is not out of the question. Given Democrats’ razor-thin margins in both chambers of Congress, this spells trouble.

Second, Republicans have a built-in redistricting advantage with their control of more state legislative chambers in purple states. Given what we saw in 2010, we know they will press their advantage with the post-2020 maps, and this time they have a Supreme Court ruling that has declared partisan gerrymandering legal.

In states where Democrats have leverage, they’ll need to use the tools at their disposal to advance maps that can combat the Republican gerrymanders to come. And if Republicans in Illinois complain — tell them to tell their GOP friends in Congress to pass HR 1.

How you can advance a 50-state strategy in Illinois:

• Encourage Republican members of the Illinois congressional delegation to support HR 1, creating a bipartisan opportunity for fair maps and fair elections.
• In the absence of bipartisan agreement on the future of our elections, push for the 14–3 map in Illinois to create a larger chance at a US House majority for Democrats.