50-State Strategy: Arizona
Power-Building Strategy: Put Democrats in control of state government.
In 2020, Democrats got one step closer to turning Arizona into a blue state by winning its Electoral College votes and flipping its second US Senate seat blue. The next battleground in turning Arizona blue is to win control of its state government, which remains largely under the control of Republicans.
In 2020, Democrats identified the Arizona legislature as a top flip opportunity, and EveryDistrict invested in candidates in battleground districts. Ultimately, Republicans remained in control of the chamber. You can read our full recap of what happened in Arizona state legislative elections here.
In 2022, the governorship will be back on the ballot along with all State Senate and State House districts, where legislators in both chambers serve two-year terms. While the first midterm election after a presidential election typically sees a swing away from the president’s party, Arizona’s growing Democratic electorate offers opportunities for continued wins even in a tough year and gubernatorial elections are often more isolated from national trends. Democrats must be mindful of two key factors as they build out their state strategy in Arizona.
First, winning at the federal level doesn’t automatically translate into electing state-level Democrats. In 2018, US Senator Kyrsten Sinema flipped that seat blue, but Republicans held onto the governor’s seat. A vote for Mark Kelly’s 2022 US Senate campaign, (a seat which in and of itself will be difficult to hold), won’t automatically be a vote for the Democratic nominee for governor. The campaign for governor must have its own infrastructure and state-focused message about how Democratic governance can lead Arizona to a brighter future.
At the same time, a successful statewide campaign for Governor won’t automatically translate to a Democratic majority in the legislature, either. As we outlined in our full recap of Arizona legislative elections, Biden carried 15 of the 30 legislative districts while Democrats fell short of majorities in both chambers. The Phoenix suburbs represent the best opportunity to flip the legislature blue, and Democrats must continue to invest in organizing in those communities (whatever the exact district lines look like post-redistricting) and to message in particular to those voters who voted for Joe Biden why a vote for state legislative Democrats is so important, especially given the Trumpian turn of state Republicans.
How do we actually make that state legislative campaign successful? In 2020, Arizona legislative candidates raised impressive amounts, but much of that money came late (see our recap for a more detailed breakdown). In 2022, EveryDistrict is committed to getting money to candidates in the districts we need to win to flip the legislature earlier than ever.
How you can advance a 50-state strategy in Arizona:
- Support EveryDistrict’s efforts to get more dollars to state legislative candidates in Arizona earlier than ever before.
